As of 5 a.m. EDT Friday, Tropical Storm Beta was centered near 12.3 north and 81.2 west; this is about 35 miles east-southeast of San Andres Island and 175 miles east of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Beta is drifting to the north at about 3 mph with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb, or 29.35 inches.
A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Islands of San Andres and Providencia.
A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch remain in effect for the entire Caribbean coast of Nicaragua from the border with Costa Rica northward to Cabo Gracias a Dios near the Nicaragua/Honduras border; adjacent islands are also covered by this watch and warning.
An upper-level ridge of high pressure is sitting right on top of the storm, which puts it in an area favorable for continuing intensification. Beta should become a hurricane over the next 12-24 hours, and could reach category 2 strength (96-110 mph) before making landfall in Nicaragua late in the weekend.
An upper-level trough of low pressure will slowly pass across the Gulf of Mexico over the next day or so and should draw Beta slowly more north than west; a track more to the west is likely over the weekend as the trough moves into the Atlantic and high pressure builds in the mid-levels across the Gulf of Mexico.
Heavy rain will affect eastern parts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as western Panama, over the next couple of days and could lead to major flooding. Strong damaging winds may develop along the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua late Saturday into Sunday.
Tropical waves along 42 west, 64 west and along 75 west are all south of 20 north and heading to the west at 10-15 knots. There are no signs of development in any of these waves at this point, and this should remain the case into Saturday. Should the shear that is affecting the wave along 64 west relax later in the weekend, this wave could develop further Sunday. [Link]
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