A large area of disturbed weather extending from near Bermuda into the northeast Caribbean is being caused by an upper-level low pressure area located between Puerto Rico and Bermuda. This upper-level low will move northward. A broad area of surface low pressure over the Bahamas will spilt into two parts. The main low pressure area will accompany the upper-level low and move northward while another low breaks off and moves into the central Caribbean. The surface low accompanying the upper-level low might become a non-tropical storm by the middle of this week. There is some concern that if this low does become a "subtropical storm" it could evolve into a more tropical system later in the week as it moves closer to the New England coast. A large surface high building eastward into the Maritimes of Canada contrasting with this surface low will create strengthening winds and increasing surf during this week. This could lead to tidal flooding and beach erosion along the middle and northeast Atlantic coastal areas. All boaters, especially fisherman should take the evolution of this storm very serious. Long range computer models suggest this system could turn into a very large storm that might have both tropical and non-tropical characteristics. These kinds of storms can create phenomenal waves and very large swells for days.
Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic Basin, we are keeping an eye on tropical waves along 32 west, 44 west, 55 west and 84 west. All waves are generally south of 20 north and are moving west at about 10-15 knots or 4-6 degrees longitude per day. The large upper-level low north of Puerto Rico is creating too much westerly flow in the southwestern Atlantic and over the eastern Caribbean to allow these waves to develop.
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