Storms 411

Hurricane John Upgraded to Category 4

John is offshore but its reach is broad and it's still growing

ACAPULCO, Mexico - Hurricane John has become a dangerous Category 4 storm and is likely to strengthen further, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Wednesday, posing threats to resort towns as it marches up Mexico's Pacific coast.

While the storm’s eye was not projected to hit land, the center said hurricane-force winds were likely to begin lashing beaches northwest of Acapulco and Ixtapa late Wednesday.

John had maximum sustained winds of 135 mph, with stronger gusts. [Read more]

A hurricane watch has been issued for the southern Peninsula of Florida

A hurricane watch has been issued for the southern Peninsula of Florida from New Smyrna southward on the east coast, and from south of Chokoloskee southward along the west coast. A hurricane watch remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A hurricane watch is also in effect for Anddros Island in the northwestern Bahamas, the Biminis and Grand Bahama Island. Hurricane warning is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to the southwest tip of Haiti. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Ranma, Olguin, Las Tunas and Camaguey and the Ragged Silands and Great Exuma Island in the central Bahamas. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands

At 11 a.m., EDT, Monday, the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near 20.3 north and 75.7 west. It is over the eastern tip of Cuba, about 35 miles west northwest of Guantanamo, Cuba, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Ernesto was moving to the northwest at near 10 mph. The surface pressure is 1006 millibars or 29.71 inches.

On Sunday, Ernesto became the first hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season with maximum sustained winds reaching 75 mph. However, after moving over the mountainous terrain of southwestern Haiti, Ernesto weakened to a tropical storm by Sunday afternoon. Ernesto is now over the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba.  [read the rest of the story]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 16

000
WTNT35 KNHC 281432
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...ERNESTO MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND
FLOODING CONTINUES...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  ALSO...THE GOVERNMENT
OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BIMINI ISLANDS
AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD
ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.  A HURRICANE
WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BIMINIS...AND GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREAS LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... HOLGUIN...
LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT
EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA
TODAY AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND TODAY...BUT RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND  MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...20.3 N...75.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

Tropical Storm Chris Brings Rough Weather to The Virgin Islands

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the islands of Anguilla, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin and St. Maarten.

At 4:00 am EDT, Tropical Storm Chris was centered at 18.7 North, 62.5 west, 230 miles east of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The maximum winds were still 60 mph. The storm is moving west-northwest at around 9 mph and the minimum pressure was estimated to be 1002 millibars, or 29.59 inches of mercury. The tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 75 miles, mainly northeast from the storm's center.

Chris appears to be consolidating, becoming better organized, and gaining strength. The environment around the storm is favorable for further strengthening. The waters around the storm are warm and warm to substantial depth. The winds aloft are light, so there is little shear to be concerned with. So, the trend toward strengthening should continue in the near term, and Chris could easily be a hurricane by tonight or early Thursday morning. Source AccuWeather

Evacuations Ordered

Florida Gov. Jeb Bush issued a mandatory evacuation order for low-lying counties Dixie, Levy, Taylor, Citrus, Franklin and Wakulla, which are in the storm's path.

"If you are ordered to evacuate you should do it," Bush said Monday afternoon. "Don't think you can ride out a storm. There are 17 shelters planned to be open in 11 counties and more will be open later." Read more CNN

Tropical Storm Alberto is moving toward Florida and will make landfall today in the Big Bend region of the state.

Heavy rains and tornadoes remain the main threat across the Big Bend and Northeast Florida.

Tropical Storm Alberto has weakened slightly as of early Tuesday morning with maximum sustained winds now at 65 mph. Despite some weakening of the thunderstorms near the center of the tropical system, the area of rainfall is affecting much of North Florida and South Georgia. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Longboat Key, FL to the Ochlockonee River, FL. AccuWeather.com is forecasting landfall Tuesday morning around 9am edt.

Alberto not expected to reach hurricane strength

The first named storm of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season slightly strengthened early today in the Gulf of Mexico, prompting forecasters to issue tropical storm warnings for Florida's west coast. Tropical Storm Alberto had maximum sustained wind near 50 mph but was not likely to grow into a hurricane, the National Hurricane Center said. There were no major reports of damage.  Read more - CNN

Alberto Threatens Florida Gulf Coast

Meteorologist Matthew Rinde of AccuWaeather.com reports:

At 5 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Alberto was located near 26.2 North, 87.2 West or about 275 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida. Alberto was moving to the north-northeast near86 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph with higher gusts, mainly in thunderstorms well to the north and east of the circulation center. The latest minimum central pressure measured by Air Force reconnaissance aircraft and a nearby ship was 1001 mb or 29.56 inches. A tropical storm watch is in effect from Bonita Beach to Englewood and parts of the Florida coast have upgraded to a tropical storm warning from Englewood northward to Indian Pass. . read more

Alberto Satellite Image

2006 Hurricane Forecast

Joe Bastardi the lead Chief Forecaster of the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is predicting fewer storms, but will still be a season of above-average storm frequency in 2006.  In fact he stated that 1 in 6 Americans could be directly impacted by Hurricanes.

For the 2006 Hurricane Season-which traditionally runs from June 1 through November 30-Bastardi and his team are forecasting that six tropical cyclones will make landfall in the U.S. Five of these landfalling storms are likely to be hurricanes, with three being major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.

"The 2006 season will be a creeping threat," said Bastardi. "Early in the season-June and July-the Texas Gulf Coast faces the highest likelihood of a hurricane strike, possibly putting Gulf energy production in the line of fire. As early as July, and through much of the rest of the season, the highest level of risk shifts to the Carolinas. From mid-August into early October, the window is open for hurricane strikes to spread northward to the more densely populated Northeast coast. At the very end of the season, southern Florida also faces significant hurricane risk."

"There are few areas of the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of Mexico that will not be in the bull's eye at some point this season," said Ken Reeves, AccuWeather's Director of Forecast Operations. Ironically, though, the region that was hammered the hardest last year-the central and eastern Gulf Coast-has one of the lower probabilities of receiving another major hurricane strike in 2006."

Added Reeves, "This is not to say that hard-hit New Orleans has nothing to worry about. Because the city's defenses have been so compromised by Hurricane Katrina, even a glancing blow from a hurricane elsewhere could spell trouble for the city." 

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center Forecast for 2006

June 1: Hurricane Season Begins

The 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins with rain from the Gulf to the Great Lakes.

The season begins with another day of tropical moisture flowing from the Gulf of Mexico into Texas. Chief Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi has been closely monitoring the low pressure in the western Gulf for the past several days. Bastardi says even if the system fails to "feed back and develop" into a tropical system, the heavy rain will continue to hit the coastal areas of Texas into the weekend.

Twenty-four hour rainfall totals for the greater Houston area with some areas getting as much as 4 inches.  Corpus Christi received just over over two inches of rain from January 1 to Tuesday, May 30. Since then, the city has been soaked with nearly nine inches of rain!

What Ever Happened To The Underwater New Orleans Bus Fleet?

(AP Photo - Phil Coale)

New Orleans to Sell Flooded Buses on EBay - [NewsMax]
The competition - [eBay Motors]

Bush And Katrina

This just in: Tape: Tape: Bush, Chertoff Warned Before Katrina.

In dramatic and sometimes agonizing terms, federal disaster officials warned President Bush and his homeland security chief before Hurricane Katrina struck that the storm could breach levees, put lives at risk in New Orleans' Superdome and overwhelm rescuers, according to confidential video footage.

Bush didn't ask a single question during the final briefing before Katrina struck on Aug. 29, but he assured soon-to-be-battered state officials: "We are fully prepared."

The footage - along with seven days of transcripts of briefings obtained by The Associated Press - show in excruciating detail that while federal officials anticipated the tragedy that unfolded in New Orleans and elsewhere along the Gulf Coast, they were fatally slow to realize they had not mustered enough resources to deal with the unprecedented disaster.

Remember this quote, four days after the hurricane struck?

"I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees"

And this, revealed in the ABC Interview:

According to Bush, he didn't realize there was anything wrong with the administration's response until almost four days after the hurricane. The first time he saw newscasts of the situation on the ground was on the morning of Sept. 2, when White House "Counselor [Dan] Bartlett made up a DVD of the newscasts so Bush could see them in their entirety as he flew down to the Gulf Coast the next morning on Air Force One."

Aid plan for US hurricane victims

A $7.5bn (£4.7bn) compensation plan has been announced to help thousands of US residents affected by last year's hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

Affected residents could receive up to $150,000 in what Louisiana's governor called "one of the most important programmes our state will ever run".

However, direct relief is still months away and homeowners awaiting the aid could take on more debt in the interim.

About 1,300 people were killed and 170,000 homes destroyed by the storms. [Read more - BBC]

Katrina made police choose between duty and loved ones

NEW ORLEANS — In 30 years as a cop, Paul Schubert says, he was called a lot of things — but never a coward.

In January, however, Schubert was fired by the New Orleans Police Department for leaving his job just before Hurricane Katrina hit last August, and then not returning for four weeks. Like scores of city officers who abandoned their posts, he was cast as a deserter.

Schubert, 54, says he fled to Texas to save his disabled wife, Madeline O'Neill, who needed a doctor's care and medicine for her rheumatoid arthritis, diabetes and poor eyesight. Schubert says he got permission from a supervisor to evacuate her — which the police department does not dispute — and that he figured he'd be back in a day or so. What followed was a month-long odyssey in which the couple searched repeatedly for accommodations, a new doctor and medicine before Schubert returned to work Sept. 24. [Read more USAtoday]

Louisiana rebuilding plan unveiled

LAKE CHARLES, Louisiana (AP) -- Gov. Kathleen Blanco outlined a $7.5 billion rebuilding, relocation and buyout plan Monday for thousands of residents whose homes remain damaged or destroyed after last year's hurricanes.

It is Louisiana's first comprehensive housing proposal since Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast in August, followed a month later by Hurricane Rita.

"In the not-too-distant future, I predict the sounds of hammers and saws will be ringing through all of our communities as our homes are rebuilt," Blanco said.

Assistance would be capped at a maximum $150,000 per homeowner under the proposal. But direct relief is still months away, and homeowners receiving the aid could be taking on more debt to rebuild. [Read more - CNN]

Report Spreads Blame for Katrina Failures

Poor Planning, Apathy Led to Slow Response to Hurricane Katrina, House Probe Finds

WASHINGTON Feb 12, 2006 (AP)— Unheeded warnings, poor planning and apathy in recognizing the scope of Hurricane Katrina's destruction led to the slow emergency response from the White House down to local parishes, a House investigation concludes.

The 600-page report by a special Republican-dominated House inquiry into one of the worst natural disasters in U.S. history concluded the federal government's response to Katrina was marked by "fecklessness, flailing and organizational paralysis."

It said President Bush received poor and incomplete counsel about the crisis unfolding on the Gulf Coast and that late state and local evacuation orders added to the confusion at the federal level. [Read more - ABCnews]

White House knew early of levee breaches

Documents show failures reported Aug. 29; ex-FEMA chief to testify Friday

WASHINGTON - The earliest official report of a New Orleans levee breach came at 8:30 a.m., hours after Hurricane Katrina roared ashore. Word of the possible breach surfaced at the White House less than three hours later, at 11:13 a.m.

In all, 28 federal, state and local agencies reported levee failures on Aug. 29, according to a timeline of e-mails, situation updates and weather reports that Senate Democrats say raise questions about whether the government moved quickly enough to rescue storm victims from massive flooding.

The documents were released in advance of a Senate hearing Friday at which Michael Brown, the former head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, was set to testify. [Read more - MSNBC]

Ex-FEMA chief: I may tell all about Katrina

Michael Brown asks White House if they want him to stay quiet

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Former disaster agency chief Michael Brown is indicating he is ready to reveal his correspondence with President Bush and other officials during Hurricane Katrina unless the White House forbids it and offers legal support.

Brown's stance, in a letter obtained Wednesday by The Associated Press, follows senators' complaints that the White House is refusing to answer questions or release documents about advice given to Bush concerning the August 29 storm.

Brown quit as director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency days after Katrina struck. He left the federal payroll November 2. [Read more - CNN]